Tick Tock on the DREAM Act

48 HOURS

The next 48 hours could be the most interesting and exciting time for immigration activists on both sides of the DREAM Act debate and activists on both sides of the immigration movement in general.  Open-border and pro-amnesty groups know that their window is closing on passing the DREAM Act and conservative Immigration reduction groups know that if they can hold strong for the next 3 weeks then gridlock will be a welcome home-front for the next 2 years.  But it could all come down to one very important vote set to take place in the Senate late-Wednesday or early-Thursday this week.  The clock is ticking.  Reid needs 60 votes this week in the Senate to move forward.

WHO IS IN CHARGE?

Leadership in the House and in the Senate are squaring off in this Lame Duck session.  Senator Reid and Speaker Pelosi are continuing to push their individual post-election agendas while McConnell and Boehner are lock-step on grounding any legislation that does not deal directly with the tax cuts, budget, jobs and the economy.  In fact, all 42 Republican Senators signed a letter stating that every Republican will vote against proceeding to any legislative matter until they have (1) funded the government and (2) protected every taxpayer from a tax hike.  McConnell said "Basically, first things first."

Despite this warning, despite this reality, and despite this fact, Senator Harry Reid moved forward last night filing the necessary paperwork to move the DREAM Act into a debate and putting the legislation up for a vote.  The DREAM Act will not (1) fund the government or (2) protect taxpayers from tax increases, so why is Reid wasting valuable time on plugging an Amnesty for 2.1 million illegal immigrant young adults that will cost the U.S. taxpayers an estimated $6.2 billion dollars a year?  Why you ask?  Because Senator Reid has a debt to pay to the Hispanic community and Latino voters that put him back into office for another 6 years.  If anything, the Lame Duck session has produced some pretty stronger evidence that Congressional Democrats really need to re-evaluate their leadership choices. 

Even before Wednesday's threat from all 42 Republican senators, securing 60 votes to debate the DREAM Act faced a steep hill to climb given that a handful of the 58 sitting Democratic senators are expected to vote against it.  In any imaginable scenario, Majority Leader Reid will have to win the votes of at least a half-dozen Republicans in order to debate the bill.  Currently, Senators Richard Lugar (R-IN) and Robert Bennett (R-UT) are the only Republicans who had indicated support for it.

MINUTE TO MINUTE

Anything could happen.  This amnesty situation is both critical and fluid.  The DREAM Act will get a vote this week.  Senator Harry Reid needs 60 votes in the Senate to continue to the amendment process and navigate to an actual vote on the bill.  In order to nip this in the bud, activists need to call their Senators NOW (202-224-3121) and urge them to vote NO on the DREAM Act.

Under the Senate rules, the affirmative votes of 60 senators are necessary in order to invoke cloture on a question.  Thus, proponents of the DREAM Act will need to secure 60 votes for cloture in order to move to consideration of the bill.  Most observers believe that proponents face an uphill climb to get to 60 votes.  Indeed, given that a handful of the 58 sitting Democratic senators are expected to vote against invoking cloture, it appears at the time of this writing that proponents of the DREAM Act will need to win the votes of a half-dozen or more Republicans in order to succeed.

If proponents of the DREAM Act succeed in invoking cloture on the motion to proceed to the measure, they will face a number of amendments that opponents of the bill will likely offer to it.  Then, they will likely face another cloture vote on the bill, itself, before a final vote on passing the bill, as amended if amended.  Sen. Reid has indicated he is committed to ending the legislative session by December 17, giving the Senate only two weeks to juggle a full schedule, including the extension of the Bush tax cuts, a FY 2011 funding bill for the federal government, and possible approval of the START arms treaty.  And what about the Department of Defense bill?  Looks like Reid lots to think about over the next 48 hours.  The clock is ticking.